URL: https://democracy.manchester.gov.uk/ieDecisionDetails.aspx?ID=1109

Decision Maker: Executive

Outcome:

Is Key Decision?: No

Is Callable In?: No

Purpose:

Content: The Executive considered a report of the Executive Director of Adult Social Services which provided an update on the Medium?Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) relating to Adult Social Care (ASC) and set out proposed investment, savings and budget changes for the period 2026/27 to 2028/29.   The Executive noted that when the current MTFS had been approved in February 2025, the Council had been forecasting a budget shortfall of £19m in 2026/27, £47m in 2027/28 and £68m in 2028/29. Since then, the financial outlook had improved as a result of the Government’s Fair Funding Review, which had begun to reverse historic reductions in funding. The Executive also noted that the provisional Local Government Finance Settlement announced on 17 December 2025 had strengthened the financial position, though the final settlement had not yet been received at the time of reporting.   The Executive received an overview of the ASC service, including demand levels, demographic pressures and activity trends. Demand for care and support had continued to rise, particularly in homecare hours, supported accommodation and residential placements. The Directorate continued to support large numbers of residents, with activity increases across almost all major care types between 2022 and 2025. Equipment and adaptations, reablement activity, carers’ assessments and safeguarding enquiries had all demonstrated significant year?on?year growth.   The Executive was advised that ASC continued to deliver its transformation programme, Achieving Better Outcomes Together (ABOT). This included:-   ·            The expansion of Early Help; ·            Development of the My Life My Way programme for people with learning disabilities and autism; ·            Expansion of reablement; ·            Development of a new mental health delivery model; ·            Greater personalisation; and ·            The continuation of the Care Closer to Home programme to support independence and reduce reliance on hospital care   The Executive noted the 2025/26 in?year financial position, which at December 2025 was forecasting an overspend of £3.4m driven by sharply rising caseloads, higher activity levels than assumed at budget setting, and backdated care package costs.  The Directorate had delivered £2.778m of its £3.422m savings programme for 2025/26, with the remainder forecast to be delivered by year end.   The Executive considered proposed budget growth and investment for 2026 to2029. Key pressures included:-   ·            £7.0m required in 2026/27 to fund care fee uplifts following a 6.75% increase in the Real Living Wage; ·            £2.241m additional funding needed for demographic demand growth above previously assumed levels; ·            £0.604m for additional staffing capacity across ASC, including a Deputy Director post, extra social workers in the Adults Early Support Team, and the establishment of two social work consultant posts; ·            £0.633m investment to support the new in?house mental health delivery model, following TUPE transfer from Greater Manchester Mental Health Trust (GMMH).   The Executive also noted the proposed establishment of a new Prevention Fund Reserve, with £3m in 2026/27 rising to £8m by 2028/29. ASC intended to develop business cases for early intervention, increased therapy capacity, additional assessors to promote reablement, and expansion of short?term breaks for people and carers.   The Executive considered the Value for Money (VFM) programme. The Directorate was continuing to deliver previously agreed savings of £10.875m and was proposing further VFM measures totalling £8.816m over 2026/29. These included:-   ·            £4.816m increased client income; ·            £2.25m from removal of the Night?Time Disregard (NTD), supported by a proposed £0.75m transitional relief scheme; ·            £0.686m through strengthened financial assessments; ·            £1.880m general income growth by 2028/29; and ·            introducing charging arrangements for client finance services appointeeships.   The Care Closer to Home programme was expected to deliver £4m efficiencies over two years through improved patient flow and greater use of community?based services   The Executive also noted the financial position of the NHS Greater Manchester Integrated Care Board (Manchester Locality), which was reporting a forecast outturn pressure of £2m due to rising demand in individualised packages of care. Efficiency requirements for 2026/27 were expected to be £12.5m, with areas of focus including bedded care, community contracts, and joint commissioning opportunities with the Council.   The Executive considered the equality, anti?poverty, climate and risk implications. Equality Impact Assessments had been or would be completed for relevant proposals, with further work underway to improve equalities data. The Making Manchester Fairer strategy and the Council’s climate commitments continued to underpin programme development. Key risks discussed included sustained demand pressures, interdependencies of major change programmes, pressures across the health and care system, and the potential implications of a national Fair Pay Agreement for care workers from   Decisions   The Executive:   (1)       Endorse the proposed budget changes, Value for Money proposals and investments for 2026/27 to 2028/29.   (2)       Recommend that Council agree that the budget proposals as part of the Council’s overall 2026/27 budget.

Date of Decision: February 11, 2026